Chipotle Stock Crashes 19% as Sales Forecast Slashed Again – Analysts Warn of Fast-Casual Slowdown
Chipotle Stock Crashes 2025: Chipotle Mexican Grill’s stock plunged nearly 19% on Thursday, marking one of its worst single-day drops in years, after the burrito giant cut its full-year same-store sales outlook for the third consecutive quarter.
Including Thursday’s fall, Chipotle shares are now down 45% in 2025, dragging the company’s market capitalization to about $43 billion. The disappointing results have triggered a wave of downgrades from Wall Street at least five analysts slashed their price targets following the latest earnings report.
“It’s difficult to call a bottom for sales given the multitude of factors weighing on demand,” said Citi analyst Jon Tower, cutting his target price from $54 to $44 per share.
Traffic Slumps Despite Modest Sales Growth
In the third quarter, Chipotle’s same-store sales rose by just 0.3%, but the chain reported a decline in store traffic. Analysts say the brand’s perception of higher pricing may be hurting consumer visits while an average Chipotle meal costs about $10, many consumers believe it’s closer to $15, putting it in competition with pricier fast-casual rivals.
BTIG’s Pete Saleh expressed surprise at the speed of the slowdown, writing-
“We were surprised by the magnitude of the traffic decline and not convinced affordability is the only issue.”
Young Diners Pulling Back
CEO Scott Boatwright said during Wednesday’s earnings call that the company’s core demographic consumers aged 25 to 35 are visiting less frequently. The company now expects same-store sales to fall in Q4 and decline by low-single digits for the full year.
Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo added that Chipotle’s menu and marketing changes have not offset the drop in customer visits, signaling the need for stronger value-driven strategies.
Analysts Say It’s Not Just Chipotle’s Problem
Despite the sharp decline, most analysts believe industry-wide pressures not company missteps are to blame. Factors such as rising unemployment, resumed student loan payments, and stagnant real wage growth have all weakened consumer spending.
Bank of America Securities’ Sara Senatore reassured investors, writing:
“We believe the brand remains fundamentally healthy and expect a return to growth as the macro improves.”
Fast-Casual Industry Faces “Halloween Scare”
Chipotle’s decline has rattled the broader fast-casual restaurant sector, with Sweetgreen down 6% and Cava falling 8% on Thursday. Both companies are set to report third-quarter earnings next week.
Morgan Stanley’s Brian Harbour labeled the trend as “This Season’s Halloween Scare”, signaling a potential correction across the category that was once seen as inflation-proof.
Chipotle’s sharp stock drop underscores a broader consumer spending slowdown in the U.S. food sector. While inflation, job worries, and higher loan repayments pinch wallets, even beloved brands like Chipotle aren’t immune and investors may need to brace for more turbulence before the next rebound.
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